Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have infused a record Rs 4.6 trillion into Indian equities over the course of Samvat 2080, marking the highest net annual investment in any Samvat to date. This robust domestic inflow has effectively counterbalanced the comparatively subdued investments from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who contributed a net Rs 90,956 crore within the same timeframe. Against this backdrop, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices are on track to achieve their best performance in three Samvat years, despite recent market corrections.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
'More investors now view the stock market as a valuable opportunity, though many still seek quick gains, leading to a rise in futures and options trading.'
'The quality of a leader should be such that even if the leader is not there, the institution carries on.'
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
India topped the APAC region with 227 transactions in the first eight months of CY24. The US was second with 133 deals while China ranked third with 69 transactions.
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
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